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2026 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 402, article id 126999Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Thermal energy systems in buildings play a central role in global decarbonization efforts, accounting for a significant share of energy use and carbon emissions. This study addresses a key research question: how can advanced control strategies further enhance the performance of already energy-efficient, low-exergy thermal systems in low-energy buildings? To address this, a model predictive control (MPC) framework is designed to optimize the operation of an advanced thermal system based on modern concepts of low-temperature heating and high-temperature cooling, including ground-source heat pumps, borehole thermal storage, and modern air handling units. This approach employs a multi-layered MPC cost function, considering both immediate operational costs (electricity and heating) as well as system impact penalties, such as CO₂ emissions, thermal energy storage preservation, comfort violations, and peak load shaving, in response to fluctuating market cost signals, outdoor temperature, and thermal storage limitations. Applied to a validated, ultra-efficient commercial building, the MPC framework achieves a 13 % reduction in annual market-responsive operational costs, a 20 % improvement in long-term savings, and a four-year shorter payback period compared to existing well-established rule-based control. The results further confirm the robustness of predictive control under realistic forecast errors, as demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations. From an environmental perspective, the CO₂ emission index stays below both Swedish electricity and district heating baselines, demonstrating the environmental benefits of predictive control through strategic sector coupling. Beyond the case study, the proposed method provides a scalable pathway for integrating predictive control into next-generation smart buildings. It highlights the potential of MPC as the final optimization layer in advanced thermal systems, aligning with global objectives for cost-promising and carbon-neutral building operations.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV, 2026
Keywords
Boreholes, Building decarbonization, Cost penalty optimization, Forecast uncertainty, Ground source heat pump, Model predictive control (MPC), Smart HVAC, borehole, carbon emission, electricity, energy storage, energy use, optimization, uncertainty analysis
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-74286 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126999 (DOI)001614844400007 ()2-s2.0-105020918060 (Scopus ID)
2025-11-172025-11-172025-11-26Bibliographically approved