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Risk Analysis for System of Systems Management: The Swedish COVID-19 Management Case
Mälardalen University, School of Innovation, Design and Engineering, Embedded Systems.
Mälardalen University, School of Innovation, Design and Engineering, Embedded Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3986-1196
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Industrial Economics and Organisation.
Rise Research Institutes of Sweden, Kista, Sweden.
2024 (English)In: SysCon 2024 - 18th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, Proceedings, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A socio-technical system of systems (SoS) is a collaboration of independently operated and managed systems. These constituent systems join the SoS to work together for a common goal: to achieve positive emergent behaviors such as greater capability, efficiency, resource utilization, reliability, and robustness. To achieve such a goal, an SoS needs to be well-managed with mitigation plans for all system risks. However, existing risk management strategies were developed for individual, non-integrated systems and are therefore inadequate for use with SoS. This paper uses the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden as a case study for exploring risk analysis for SoS management. We performed a risk analysis of this SoS based on STAMP (System-Theoretical Accident Model and Processes), an existing method from the safety domain, as part of developing a preliminary risk analysis process for practitioners. Preliminary results reveal that extended SoS structures, uncertainty-driven decision-making, emerging behavior, and changes in trust, policy, and legislation pose significant challenges. The study's contribution is that our findings provide a knowledge base to act as a guide for risk management of SoS. Applying a method for safety analysis to crisis management also extends the body of knowledge on methods for SoS risk analysis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 2024.
Series
IEEE International Annual Systems Conference, ISSN 2472-9647
Keywords [en]
COVID-19, Crisis Management, Risk Analysis, Risk Management, SoS Management, Decision making, Knowledge based systems, Risk assessment, Safety engineering, System of systems, Emergent behaviours, Resources utilizations, Risks management, Sociotechnical systems, Swedishs, System of system management, System risk, System-of-systems, Systems management
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-68050DOI: 10.1109/SysCon61195.2024.10553576ISI: 001259228200100Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85197335985ISBN: 9798350358803 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-68050DiVA, id: diva2:1884060
Conference
SysCon 2024 - 18th Annual IEEE International Systems Conference, Montreal, Canada, 15-18th April, 2024
Available from: 2024-07-12 Created: 2024-07-12 Last updated: 2026-02-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Modeling and Analysis of Risks in Systems of Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling and Analysis of Risks in Systems of Systems
2025 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Systems of systems (SoS) are interconnected systems that include human, social, organizational, and technological elements. These complex systems have increased in today’s digital society; the elements in a SoS are called constituent systems (CS) and are characterized by managerial and operationally independent interactions to achieve a common goal. Such a goal could be lower cost, robustness, or greater capability. Examples of SoS in modern society include systems in the health, aviation, transport, crisis management, and energy sectors and smart cities. SoS are dynamic and evolve. This dynamic and evolving nature of SoS, coupled with interactions between CS and their managerial and operational independence, poses challenges for risk analysis. Traditional risk analysis methods tend to focus on individual components and known probabilities. This renders them inadequate for the complexities of risk that could arise during CS interactions and can emerge as SoS evolves. The main goal of the thesis is to contribute towards a general process for systematic risk analysis of interconnected societal systems, where modeling methods and tools support each process step. Using a non-traditional approach to safety, the System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP), this thesis validates its suitability for risk analysis in SoS. Results indicated that the approach supported risk analysis in SoS, however, various risk sources with SoS characteristics, such as dynamic structure and latent risks, are not sufficiently handled in STAMP. This thesis demonstrates and proposes a process broadening approach for SoS risk identification, analysis, and modeling adapted for SoS. The Thesis validated this approach by analyzing and modeling risk for a wildfire and COVID-19 management SoS. Further, the thesis contributes to the body of knowledge of a process for identifying risks in SoS. This process demonstrates how broader sources could be identified in SoS and the thesis contributes to knowledge of methods for SoS risk analysis. This systematic identification and analysis of risk in SoS contributes to a conceptual framework for risk analysis in SoS. Furthermore, through a systematic literature review, the thesis contributes to the state of the art in SoS risk analysis, management, and governance providing indications to researchers with areas for research in SoS risk analysis. The thesis enhances the understanding of risk in SoS by bridging the gap between the literature and practice, for risk analysis in non-traditional systems such as SoS. Future work aims to create a general process for systematic risk analysis of interconnected societal systems. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalens universitet, 2025
Series
Mälardalen University Press Licentiate Theses, ISSN 1651-9256 ; 374
National Category
Embedded Systems
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-71274 (URN)978-91-7485-711-5 (ISBN)
Presentation
2025-06-16, Kappa, Mälardalens universitet, Västerås, 13:15
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-04-29 Created: 2025-04-25 Last updated: 2025-10-10Bibliographically approved

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Pettersson, MarjorieAxelsson, JakobJohansson, Anna

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf