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Democracy, autocracy and the likelihood of international conflict
Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), P.O. Box 55665, 102 15, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8633-2449
2008 (English)In: Economics of Governance, ISSN 1435-6104, E-ISSN 1435-8131, Vol. 10, no 2, p. 99-117Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This is a game-theoretic analysis of the link between regime type and international conflict. Democratic leaders can credibly be punished for bad conflict outcomes, whereas autocratic leaders cannot. Due to the fear of being thrown out of office, democratic leaders are (i) more selective about the wars they initiate and (ii) on average win more of the wars they start. Foreign policy behaviour is found to display strategic complementarities. Therefore, the likelihood of interstate war is lowest in the democratic dyad (pair), highest in the autocratic dyad with the mixed dyad in between. The results are consistent with empirical findings.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2008. Vol. 10, no 2, p. 99-117
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Political Science
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URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-69990DOI: 10.1007/s10101-008-0055-6OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-69990DiVA, id: diva2:1933643
Available from: 2025-01-31 Created: 2025-01-31 Last updated: 2025-10-10Bibliographically approved

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Tangerås, Thomas P.

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