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Economic evaluation of one-axis, vertical, and elevated agrivoltaic systems across Europe: a Monte Carlo Analysis
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2225-029X
Department of Sustainable Crop Production, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Piacenza, Italy.
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Future Energy Center.
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2025 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 391, article id 125826Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Energy conversion from conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic systems requires a significant amount of land, which can compete with food production. Agrivoltaic systems, which integrate electricity generation and crop production, can help reduce this land competition. The profitability of agrivoltaic systems is expected to be a crucial factor for decision-makers and stakeholders considering their adoption. This work aims to analyze the economic performance of one-axis, vertical and elevated agrivoltaic systems compared to conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic systems across Europe focusing on countries such as Sweden, Denmark, Germany and Italy. By employing a stochastic approach with Monte Carlo simulations, this research makes a significant contribution to forecasting the profitability and cost-effectiveness of agrivoltaic projects in European countries for the next years. Moreover, it identifies the key parameters that significantly impact the net present value and levelized cost of electricity. The economic findings reveal a notable trend: agrivoltaic projects (i.e., one-axis, vertical, and elevated) are likely to be profitable throughout Europe. However, the agricultural profit generated from these systems is minimal for the investigated crop rotations compared to the benefits derived from energy conversion. Among the systems evaluated, one-axis agrivoltaic setups demonstrate higher profitability and cost-effectiveness compared to vertical and elevated setups. They also have a shorter discounted payback period and a lower levelized cost of electricity than conventional ground-mounted photovoltaic systems. These findings are particularly significant for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in developing agrivoltaic policies. This is especially relevant for Sweden which currently lacks agrivoltaic policies, regulations, and definitions, in contrast to Germany and Italy where policies for promoting agrivoltaics have previously been implemented or are in progress. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2025. Vol. 391, article id 125826
Keywords [en]
Agriculture, Agrivoltaic, Cost-effectiveness, Economics, Photovoltaic, Profitability, Europe, Decision makers, Economics evaluations, Electricity-generation, Energy, Food production, Levelized cost of electricities, Monte carlo analysis, Photovoltaic systems, Photovoltaics, cost analysis, decision making, electricity generation, energy policy, photovoltaic system, policy implementation, Agribusiness
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-71290DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125826ISI: 001476599900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105002835079OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-71290DiVA, id: diva2:1955632
Available from: 2025-04-30 Created: 2025-04-30 Last updated: 2025-12-08Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. The Agrivoltaic Nexus: Modelling and Optimising Water, Energy, Economy, and Food Trade-offs
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Agrivoltaic Nexus: Modelling and Optimising Water, Energy, Economy, and Food Trade-offs
2026 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Agrivoltaic (APV) systems, where photovoltaic (PV) modules are co-located with crops, present a promising solution to land-use competition between food and energy conversion. Their successful deployment, however, requires a nuanced understanding of the trade-offs between electricity generation, crop yield, water use, and regulatory constraints. In this dissertation, a comprehensive modelling framework was developed to evaluate the technical, environmental, and economic performance of APV systems across diverse European contexts. The work builds on advances in irradiance transposition modelling, view-factor analysis, and crop yield estimation, which together enable more accurate characterisation of light distribution and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) under different system designs. A state-of-the-art review of APV modelling approaches further situates these contributions within the wider field and identifies critical gaps in integrated assessment and validation. On this foundation, scenario-based optimisation was applied to explore system performance across varying climates, row pitches, heights, and orientations, under constraints reflecting national APV regulations. 

A novel combination of LER-based (land equivalent ratio, comparing the combined energy and crop productivity to their separate cultivation) metrics and economic indicators was used to characterise outcomes, with results evaluated over multiple weather years. The findings show that design modifications in geometric layout, particularly row pitch and orientation, can significantly shift the balance between LERcrop and LERPV, affecting both productivity and profitability. Results further reveal that regulatory thresholds strongly influence feasibility: while strict national frameworks rendered most configurations unviable, relaxed rules enabled designs achieving LER values above 1.3 and net present values (NPVs) exceeding €2 million per hectare. If crop models were to incorporate adaptive mechanisms, even stricter regulatory scenarios could become feasible, with LER values above 1.6 in favourable contexts. Overall, this dissertation contributes transparent and generalisable modelling tools that link detailed irradiance and crop representation with system-level optimisation. The findings underscore the importance of integrating economic, agronomic, and policy perspectives, while pointing to future work on crop model realism, spectral and microclimate effects, and expanded crop databases to further enhance the robustness of APV deployment strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalen University, 2026. p. 179
Series
Mälardalen University Press Dissertations, ISSN 1651-4238 ; 458
National Category
Energy Engineering
Research subject
Energy- and Environmental Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-74935 (URN)978-91-7485-743-6 (ISBN)
Public defence
2026-01-30, Delta, Mälardalens universitet, Västerås, 09:15 (English)
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Available from: 2025-12-08 Created: 2025-12-08 Last updated: 2026-01-09Bibliographically approved

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Zidane, Tekai Eddine KhalilZainali, SebastianGuezgouz, MohammadKhosravi, ArashMa Lu, SilviaTekie, SultanCampana, Pietro Elia

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