Evaluating Business Models for Vertical Agrivoltaic Systems in Sweden: An economic assessment through cash flow and sensitivity analysis
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
As demand for both agricultural production and renewable energy rises, vertical agrivoltaic systems offer a solution to land-use competition by enabling the simultaneous use of land for crop cultivation and electricity generation. In Sweden, however, the adoption of such systems is limited, in part due to uncertainties around economic feasibility and suitable business models. This thesis investigates how different stakeholder configurations, based on land ownership, investment roles, and operational responsibilities, can support the implementation of vertical agrivoltaic (AV) systems in the Swedish agricultural sector. A comparative cash flow analysis and Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to assess the economic viability of multiple business model scenarios under varying economic conditions. The results show that all models can be profitable under current market conditions, but their attractiveness varies depending on how costs, risks, and revenues are distributed. Investor-led models reduce financial exposure for farmers, while farmer-led models offer higher returns with greater associated risk. For example, the fully farmer-led model yields a net present value (NPV) of approximately €5.12 million over the project lifetime for a 47-hectare farm, while more external-led models yield between €96,000 and €2 million for the farmer. For external stakeholders, like PV operators and landowners, financial outcomes remain relatively stable across models due to consistent income and cost streams. Project scale, electricity prices, crop profitability, and discount rates were found to significantly influence long-term outcomes. The study also highlights regulatory complexity and subsidy constraints as key barriers to adoption. Overall, the findings underscore the need for clear policy frameworks, tailored support mechanisms, and collaborative business models to facilitate the broader adoption of AV systems in Sweden.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 68
Keywords [en]
Agrivoltaic systems, Business models, Monte Carlo simulation, Cash flow analysis, Risk management
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-72457OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-72457DiVA, id: diva2:1977651
Subject / course
Energy Engineering
Presentation
2025-05-28, MDU, Västerås, 08:00 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
2025-06-262025-06-262025-10-10Bibliographically approved