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A Conformal Prediction-Based Framework for CPU Load Forecasting: A Black-Box Approach
Mälardalen University, School of Innovation, Design and Engineering, Embedded Systems.ORCID iD: 0009-0006-2745-4282
Mälardalen University, School of Innovation, Design and Engineering, Embedded Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2870-2680
Mälardalen University, School of Innovation, Design and Engineering, Innovation and Product Realisation.
Mälardalen University, School of Innovation, Design and Engineering, Embedded Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9857-4317
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2025 (English)In: Proceedings - 2025 IEEE 49th Annual Computers, Software, and Applications Conference, COMPSAC 2025, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2025, p. 361-370Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

To address safety concerns in industrial systems, we propose a framework for forecasting CPU load with respect to a predetermined threshold, allowing customers to add tasks from a predefined library. Existing tools, akin to Windows Task Manager, provide limited insights due to their aggregate nature and high computational overhead. Our approach uses conformal prediction for rapid uncertainty-aware forecasts and Shapley value analysis to quantify individual task contributions to the CPU load. This proof-of-concept framework improves system safety assessment by addressing key research questions in load prediction and validation, paving the way for refined measurement methodologies in industrial applications.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , 2025. p. 361-370
Series
IEEE Annual Computer Software and Applications Conference Workshops, ISSN 2836-3795
Keywords [en]
Conformal Prediction, Cpu, Forecasting, Load, Shapley, Accident Prevention, Artificial Intelligence, Electric Load Forecasting, Industrial Research, Uncertainty Analysis, Black Box Approach, Conformal Predictions, Industrial Systems, Load Forecasting, Prediction-based, Safety Concerns, Task Managers, Loading
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-73410DOI: 10.1109/COMPSAC65507.2025.00056ISI: 001575960000048Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105016185844ISBN: 9798331574345 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-73410DiVA, id: diva2:2000557
Conference
49th IEEE Annual Computers, Software, and Applications Conference, COMPSAC 2025, Toronto, Canada, 8-11 July, 2025
Available from: 2025-09-24 Created: 2025-09-24 Last updated: 2026-04-27Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Machine Learning for Predictive Modeling and Abstraction in Industrial-Scale Systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Machine Learning for Predictive Modeling and Abstraction in Industrial-Scale Systems
2026 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Machine learning is increasingly called upon to guide decisionsin critical industrial applications. Its predictive powerpromises gains in efficiency, yet its black-box nature and lackof guarantees pose risks in contexts where behavior must remainanalyzable and safe. This thesis asks how machine learning can bemade trustworthy, explainable, and efficient enough for engineersto deploy in practice. Three gaps hamper broader adoption. Few works provide formal orstatistical guarantees on ML outputs paired with explanationsthat engineers can act on (Gap~A). Data-driven models thatgeneralize across hardware configurations without retrainingremain rare, and existing simulators are prohibitively slow(Gap~B). Many contributions address individual components ofindustrially motivated problems without combining them intovalidated end-to-end pipelines (Gap~C). To address Gap~A, we apply abstraction to neural networks,showing that inputs with negligible effect on the output can beformally identified and removed, producing simpler yet boundedmodels open to verification. We then introduce a conformalprediction framework for CPU load forecasting that providesstatistically guaranteed coverage intervals, combined withShapley value analysis to trace individual task contributions tothe predicted load. To address Gap~B, we develop a data-drivencache memory surrogate using long short-term memory networks,reproducing cache miss distributions across unseen hardwareconfigurations at a fraction of the simulator's computationalcost. To address Gap~C, we present HASCO, a Hybrid AI SimulationCompiler that translates natural language accident reports intoexecutable vehicular simulation scenarios through a structuredcompilation approach with deterministic validation. Together, these contributions establish a path toward machinelearning that is not merely powerful but trustworthy, explainable,and practically deployable in the industrial workflow.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Västerås: Mälardalens universitet, 2026
Series
Mälardalen University Press Licentiate Theses, ISSN 1651-9256 ; 384
Keywords
Machine learning; Embedded systems; Trustworthy AI; Explainability; Conformal prediction; Neural network verification; Cache simulation; Scenario-based testing; Industrial systems
National Category
Computer Sciences
Research subject
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-76650 (URN)978-91-7485-758-0 (ISBN)
Presentation
2026-06-15, room R2-141, Mälardalens universitet, Västerås, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20220033Knowledge Foundation, 20190038Knowledge Foundation, 20230147
Note

Compilation thesis (sammanläggningsavhandling) comprising four papers. The included papers are: Paper A (LNCS 15250, in press), Paper B (COMPSAC 2025), Paper C (STTT 2025), Paper D (AEiC 2026, accepted).

Available from: 2026-05-13 Created: 2026-04-27 Last updated: 2026-05-25Bibliographically approved

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Jelacic, EdinSeceleanu, CristinaBackeman, PeterXiong, NingSeceleanu, Tiberiu

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