https://www.mdu.se/

Developing new production systems in today’s dynamic manufacturing landscape requires more than traditional planning—it demands proactive tools that can evaluate disruptions before implementation. This study introduces a structured, scenario-based simulation framework designed to support early-stage production system development through informed decision-making. Building on prior research in 3D simulation modeling, this work extends the role of simulation tools from process validation to a conceptual design enabler. A case study has been presented which demonstrates the framework’s application across five phases: from identifying operational challenges to defining aligned scenarios, evaluating key performance indicators, and informing strategic decisions. Three disruption categories—operator shortages, supply chain delays, and machine overutilization—were simulated to compare reactive and proactive planning strategies. Results reveal that scenario-based simulation not only enhances system robustness and scheduling flexibility but also supports investment justification and resource planning under uncertainty. The framework contributes new methodological insights to the field by bridging simulation, performance metrics, and scenario logic into a coherent tool for resilient, data-driven production system design.